PA Still Losing Jobs--Falls 52,600 Short Of Bush Administration "Jobs And Growth" Plan, Keystone Research Finds

Manufacturing Employment Continues to Erode: Down 3,700 Jobs in Last Month

Harrisburg, November 21, 2003 - Pennsylvania's economy lost 3,900 jobs in October. Since June, it has generated 52,600 fewer jobs than President Bush promised from his "Jobs and Growth Plan," according to a review of federal data by the Keystone Research Center (KRC) and Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

"Last month's data show that the President's job growth plan isn't working for Pennsylvania," said Stephen Herzenberg, an economist and Executive Director of KRC. ""The reason is simple economics - tax cuts that target the affluent don't pump up the economy quickly because the dollars aren't spent."

The President's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) predicted that the U.S. economy would generate 5,510,000 new jobs nationwide by the end of 2004. Based on CEA's projection, the Washington D.C.-based Economic Policy Institute (EPI) estimates that the Pennsylvania economy should have generated 38,100 jobs between June and October of this year. Instead, Pennsylvania has lost 14,500 jobs since June.

"If the recovery does generate more jobs at some point," added Herzenberg, "a critical question is how many will support a middle class family? The number will be lower if we keep losing good-paying manufacturing jobs and we don't increase the minimum wage above its 1997 level."

So far, the recent numbers on Pennsylvania job quality are not good. As reported in KRC's The State of Working Pennsylvania 2003 (on line at www.keystoneresearch.org), Pennsylvania wages fell 4.1 percent from the first half of 2002 to the first half of 2003.

EPI and the Harrisburg-based Keystone Research Center are tracking job creation in Pennsylvania as part of an on-going joint Job Watch project designed to monitor the nation's progress toward the Bush Administration's job-creation goal.

The latest Pennsylvania employment, unemployment, and job creation numbers will be available by the close of business at the Keystone Research Center's new "Economic Snapshot" Web page at www.keystoneresearch.org/snapshot. National data are available from the Job Watch web site at www.jobwatch.org.

CURRENT FACTS ON JOBS IN PENNSYLVANIA

Bush 'Jobs and Growth' Plan Disappoints.

From June 2003 to October 2003, 38,100 jobs were supposed to have been created in Pennsylvania under President Bush's so-called 'Jobs and Growth' tax cut. Infact, since the tax cut was projected to start creating jobs, Pennsylvania has lost 14,500 jobs.

Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the recession began.

The state of Pennsylvania had 88,200 fewer jobs in October 2003 than in March 2001 when the recession officially began--a decline of 1.5%.

Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than when the recession ended.

The state of Pennsylvania had 18,500 fewer jobs in October 2003 than in November 2001 when the recession officially ended--a decline of 0.3%. This far (23 months) after the end of the 1990 recession, Pennsylvania had seen an increase of 0.3% in total payroll employment.

Pennsylvania has a higher unemployment rate than when the recession began.

The state of Pennsylvania had an unemployment rate of 5.4% in October 2003, up from 4.3% in March 2001, when the recession officially began.

Pennsylvania has a higher unemployment rate than when the recession ended.

The state of Pennsylvania had an unemployment rate of 5.4% in October 2003, up from 5.2% in November 2001, when the recession officially ended.

Pennsylvania has fewer jobs than in the beginning of 2001.

The state of Pennsylvania had 87,100 fewer jobs in October 2003 than in January 2001--a decline of 1.5%.

Pennsylvania has a higher unemployment rate than in the beginning of 2001.

The state of Pennsylvania had an unemployment rate of 5.4% in October 2003, up from 4.2% in January 2001.

Job Growth has not kept up with working-age population growth in Pennsylvania.

Job Growth since the recession began has been approximately 2.9 percentage points less than working-age population growth. If job growth since the recession began had just kept up with working-age population growth, Pennsylvania would have approximately 166,600 more jobs >

Job Growth since the recession ended has been approximately 1.4 percentage points less than working age population growth. If job growth since the recession ended had just kept up with working-age population growth, Pennsylvania would have approximately 76,800 more jobs

Job Growth since January 2001 has been approximately 3 percentage points less than working age population growth. If job growth since January 2001 had just kept up with working-age population growth, Pennsylvania would have approximately 170,600 more jobs.